“New wars may arise due to water scarcity”

The climate is changing faster than ever before. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently released a worrying report indicating that we are heading towards global warming of more than 2.5 degrees Celsius. “This climate change is becoming an increasingly important factor in large-scale conflicts, including wars,” says Bart Verheijen, a climate scientist at KNMI.

The effects of climate change are already being felt, even in the Netherlands. “While we initially saw it as a distant spectacle, we are now facing heavy rainfall. Think of the floods of 2021 and the extreme heatwaves, where temperatures were measured at 40 degrees. These extremes will happen more often and with greater intensity,” Verheijen stresses.

“It becomes even more serious when we look at the stability of our climate,” he explains. “There are tipping points. These are moments when the climate can change dramatically in a short period of time.” In some places on Earth, it has become so hot that the human body cannot lose heat. “In a world that is 2.5 to 3 degrees warmer, more areas will become uninhabitable.”

Unlivable areas, including the Netherlands

Furthermore, sea levels would rise by several metres with a 2.5 to 3 degree warming. “The Netherlands is a rich, technologically advanced country, so we can protect ourselves well at a height of one to two metres,” explains Verheijen. But this requires a lot of energy and has an impact on the landscape, such as salinization. “You might wonder whether we could continue to live in all the places in the Netherlands in a 3 degree warmer world.”

The more areas become uninhabitable, the more people will have to leave. It is estimated that around 2.7 billion people around the equator will have to leave their home countries, which could also happen in our direction. “This could lead to political and social tensions.”

CO2 emissions

Climate change has always been around, says Verheijen, but humans—and their carbon dioxide emissions—are playing a major role. Historically, carbon dioxide levels have always been lower in colder times and higher in warmer times. “But now we’re emitting so much carbon dioxide that it’s rapidly changing the climate.” Even if we stopped emitting now, the climate scientist says, carbon dioxide would stay in the atmosphere for a long time.

Verheijen warns that if we don’t act quickly, life on Earth will become less pleasant. “Climate change is becoming an increasingly important factor in large-scale conflicts, including wars.” He believes that many wars have been triggered by scarcity in the past, and that this could happen again in the future due to climate change. “It’s never too late to prevent the worst from happening, but we really need to start now.”