Only J&J can keep track of the vaccination campaign

Flemish Minister Wouter Beck (CD&V) announced at the beginning of March that if pharmaceutical companies comply with the agreements concluded, all Flemish His first vaccination against the Flemish July 11 holiday Against corona virus. Two weeks ago, Anti-Coronavirus Commissioner Pedro Vaccon was a little more cautious Speak from the end of July. Despite all the troubles with the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca, that second forecast still looks realistic, De Tijd calculates.

Currently, 2.68 million of nearly 9.2 million Belgian adults (29%) have been injected at least once with the Corona vaccine. Pfizer and Moderna have reported a schedule through the end of June. Pfizer will provide nearly 5 million vaccines in May and June, 1.3 million more than initially promised. 700,000 doses of Moderna are also expected. However, an important part of these vaccines is used to administer a second dose at the appropriate time. On Pfizer, this is five weeks after the first inoculation, at Moderna four weeks.

Our simulations show that with deliveries from Pfizer and Moderna, 5.62 million Belgians could have received a first injection by the end of June. This is twice what it is today, and it represents 60 percent of the adult population. If the two companies maintain the pace of their delivery after that, then it is possible that all adults will be vaccinated with these vaccines by September. (See diagram).

Initially, the European Union had high hopes for the AstraZeneca vaccine. But the British Swedish pharmaceutical company was unable to recover it. The hope was that it would provide 300 million doses to the member states of Europe by the end of June, but that would not exceed 100 million. The European Commission takes AstraZeneca case to court Because he was not fulfilling supply contracts.

In the next two months, 1.1 to 1.6 million doses of AstraZeneca are expected to arrive in our country. If the UK-Swedish deliveries are at the bottom of that range, there will be a few first shots from May. Then supplies are needed to give the vaccines a second injection, which is added to this medicine three months after the first vaccination. Our country has not set an age limit for the second dose.

Because AstraZeneca fell short of expectations, Johnson & Johnson became essential to keeping the vaccination campaign on track. A limited number of rare strokes have also been diagnosed in J&J, which are in use in our country from this week. But due to its extreme rarity, the government decided to use the vaccine, which requires only one dose, in the entire population.

Our country expects 1.4 million J&J vaccinations in the next two months. Deliveries have yet to be confirmed, so it is not yet certain when they will be delivered. If the company keeps its word, 7 million Belgians have a chance of getting a first dose by the end of June. This is 75 percent of the adult population. 2.2 million Belgians, most of them between 20 and 40 years old, have to be patient for a little longer.

Giving a first injection to the entire population by July 11 will be difficult. But in the third quarter, our country expects 9 million vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna and J&J. Roughly, that’s 3 million vaccinations per month. If delivered effectively, it is possible at the end of July. It could be faster if the Curevac vaccine, which is being investigated by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), was used as of June.

The government no longer took AstraZeneca into account in the third quarter. The contract between Europe and the company ends on June 30th. The question is what happens to the 200 million doses that the company was unable to provide in the first and second quarters. With the lawsuit, the European Commission is hoping to quickly recover some of this, which could speed up the vaccination campaign a little more.

To meet the timing of the end of July, it is extremely important that Pfizer and J&J effectively deliver the promised doses. Pfizer has a proven track record – with an additional 1.3 million vaccines in the second quarter, the company even keeps its campaign in action. Because vaccination with J&J has not yet started, there is less certainty about these doses. But it is our only chance to reach the realm of freedom before the end of July.