“The climate model is not a neutral vision of the future; it contains assumptions.”

Climate models are driving the debate about global warming. But we don’t think about how they appear. This is a bad thing, says Lisette van Beek, who received her doctorate on the subject on Friday.

Futures, Lisette van Beek sees the potential to turn this into action. The researcher from Utrecht University calls for creating scenarios with citizens. For example, in citizens’ assemblies, where groups of citizens think together about what is possible or impossible in climate policy. So “future” together. Van Beek, who was awarded a doctorate on the subject last Friday, believes this could lead to greater engagement with climate policy and equitable solutions.

What’s wrong with current climate models?

“Climate models paint a picture of the future, and what it could look like under certain conditions. But that’s not how they’re used. What the models say is quickly accepted as fact. Don’t get me wrong, we desperately need those models, and without them we won’t know what It is the impact of climate change.But such a climate model does not represent a neutral vision of the future, but rather contains assumptions.

What models are you talking about exactly?

“The first report using such a model was Growth limits For the Club of Rome in 1972. In it, the computer model “World3” calculated the interaction between industrial growth and the limits of ecosystems. Since then, the models have become more complex. The climate panel of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses so-called Integrated evaluation models For example, to calculate measures: What would happen to global warming if too much renewable energy was introduced? What these models calculate has become so influential that goals are built on it.

Logically, what is the problem?

“Calculated choices often depend on what policymakers want. The results of those models are quickly seen as the only possible direction. This is the case, for example, with carbon dioxide capture.”_{2From the air – for example by storing it in the ground, or by planting trees to compensate. This was initially controversial in the community, but has been fully taken into consideration. Partly for this reason, it has become an important way to stay within climate goals.}

“An alternative future scenario could be: reduce emissions more quickly, so you can use that carbon dioxide₂ You don’t have to catch him. My point is that there are worldviews behind all these models, of what is possible and what is not seen as possible. Continuing to assume economic growth is an implicit expectation often included by modellers.

How could this be otherwise?

“First, you can make it more transparent about the assumptions built into those models. You can also include the social and economic consequences of the calculated scenarios. That way you can also show who are the winners and losers in society in certain future scenarios. And who bears the burden? Are these big companies or citizens?” This makes climate models even more important.

“Secondly, you can also involve citizens in creating those models. In the Netherlands, for example, this has already been tried in the climate consultation. Citizens can think about climate policy and also see the consequences of certain climate choices. Many European countries have councils For climate citizens where citizens can contribute their ideas.My research shows that scientists and policymakers find it difficult to make room for citizens in these conversations, for example, they define topics in advance.

What do you do with such a model if citizens or politicians want to abolish climate policy?

“Models take scientific facts as a basis, meaning that the climate is changing. But these models can very well show the consequences if you do nothing or if minimal measures are taken. Then, for example, sea level rises and food prices rise.” “So these models are illuminating. They’re a great way to get people thinking about what future they think is desirable, and what the options are for getting there.”

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