“What Alexia Bertrand says about the budget is not true.”

“My dear colleague Van Petegem.” With this polite greeting, State Secretary for Budget Alexia Bertrand (Open VLD) began an extended message to Finance Minister Vincent van Petegem (CD&V) on X, formerly Twitter, on Sunday afternoon. Although they were in the same cabinet as Vivaldi, Bertrand seems to have felt it necessary to address Van Petegem publicly.

So it was about a highly flammable material in the Wetstraat: the government voucher. In September, the debt agency raised a historic €22 billion through its first government bonds. Minister Van Petegem aims to repeat this success, albeit in a modest way: new government bonds dated March 4 for a maximum of 6 billion euros.

Point of contention within the government: withholding taxes. Van Petegem, with the support of the debt agency, was aiming for 15% instead of the usual 30% for one-year government bonds. But this received negative advice from Secretary of State Bertrand: she feared the impact on the government's finances. The CD&V member then suggested that Bertrand did not want government bonds to be successful. “But I have only one worry: not to derail our budget further,” Bertrand responded. She believes it is wise to borrow in the long term.

According to economist Geert Bersmann (UGent), Bertrand misses this point. “In essence, Van Petegem is right about the budget, and Bertrand is not. For example, borrowing over the long term is not necessarily better for the budget. Additionally, she says that 15% of property taxes generate less tax revenue than 30%. This is only true If the money for the new government bonds comes from time deposit accounts in banks If the money comes from savings accounts, such a government bond is just like a government bond good It's about the budget. Zero percent withholding tax is paid on this.

The opposition accuses the government of political profiling four months before the elections. Open VLD and Groen are particularly troublesome, and it is no coincidence that they are the two parties whose leaders, Alexander De Croo and Petra De Sutter respectively, will face Van Petegem in East Flanders on 9 June.

Geert Bersman: There is no doubt that election fever plays a role for everyone involved. Now take that withholding tax. The rule is it's 30 percent. Why exactly does Van Petegem want this discount? Last time it was clear that it was meant to stimulate the banks, but now I don't get the impression that this is the main reason.

Isn't it true that the success of government bonds depends on the level of withholding tax?

noble: It is true that government bonds are unlikely to succeed under a 30 percent withholding tax. At the same time, the question remains how savers will react to 15 percent. This is about 6 billion euros. Yes, that's a lot of money, but it's not as big as the first government voucher. So the discussion is somewhat symbolic.

Shouldn't we take the concerns of smaller banks, like Argenta and Krylan, seriously? The impact of previous government bonds affected their operations to the core.

noble: Of course you have to pay attention. If the government now sets 15%, then 30%, that creates uncertainty. Banks with long-term policies do not like this. Now, banks are also very quick to complain. If the total amount of government bonds is limited to €6 billion, this is largely to protect the financial system from the shock.

The opposition party N-VA criticizes Van Petegem because government bonds conflict with its goal: forcing big banks to pay higher interest rates to savers.

noble: It is too early to make any statements about this. When banks saw government bonds coming, they naturally did not want to offer a higher interest rate at first. This would have resulted in double losses: they would lose money on government bonds and lose money on the higher interest rate. Remember: Banks strive for profit and will always try to pay as little interest as possible. So they took the bitter pill, assuming – and hoping – that there would be no second government bonds. This is why the banking sector is exerting intense pressure against Van Petegem's new initiative. But it only gets interesting when the government voucher expires after a year. Then a lot of money will be released. Banks are expected to compete with each other and offer higher interest rates.